Friday, June 29, 2012

Jamie Dupree's Washington Insider: Voters knock off another incumbent

While high profile lawmakers like Rep. Charlie Rangel of New York and Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah survived tough primary challenges, voters on Tuesday night knocked off another member of Congress, as a five term Oklahoma Republican became the latest Congressional casualty.

Rep. John Sullivan (R-OK) wasn't well known outside of his Tulsa-based district, so he wasn't on the radar of many election experts as voting began Tuesday - but by the time the votes were counted, Sullivan was the eighth sitting lawmaker to be dumped by primary voters in 2012.

Compare that to 2010, when only four members lost primary races - or to 2008, when only three were defeated in a primary, and just two in 2006.

Some of the higher numbers in 2012 are directly related to redistricting, which has thrown members into new districts, or even into races involving two sitting lawmakers.

Lawmakers like Jason Altmire (D-PA), Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), Don Manzullo (R-IL) and Steven Rothman (D-NJ) lost those type of primary races to a colleague - and there will be more member vs member races this year.

But others like Sullivan, Rep. Tim Holden (D-PA), Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-TX) and Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH) were also bounced out by the voters for a fresh face - two from each party - indicating a level of discontent that can't be ignored when 19 other states still need to hold their primaries before the November elections.

Sullivan acknowledged recently that he had ignored warning signs from back home about the severity of the challenge; it's a common story of an incumbent who realizes too late that he might be in trouble.

"Biggest lesson of the night for incumbents: Run a campaign," tweeted political analyst Nathan Gonzales, who hit the nail on the head for Sullivan.

We'll see whether the carnage grows the rest of this primary season or not, as members in both parties need to realize, they could end up on the Congressional scrap heap in a hurry.

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